Wealth creation has moved from ‘Post-IPO’ in public markets to ‘Pre-IPO’ in private markets. All indicators related to private investments are at all-time high. Gone are the days, when institutional investors would invest in primary and secondary markets to stay in the security for the long term, for continued wealth creation and regular flow of dividends. Increasingly, experienced investment managers are investing in private markets, scaling the company, merge it with others and take the bigger entity public to create wealth for themselves, while limiting the returns upside for retail and other institutional investors in the secondary market.
At least in the near future, it can be said that IPO will not be the source of funds for the companies also. It is going to be the private investors in the form of Angel, Private Equity and Venture Capital firms. Companies are increasingly postponing their IPOs in favor of private investors due to less regulatory requirements, savvy nature of investors to back maverick ideas, less number of stakeholders to manage and industry-specific knowledge of investors that can be used for further scaling companies. But private investments from investors’ point of view are very different from investing in equities where all the data is available upfront. Due diligence of private target companies is a painstaking process. As part of due diligence, the following are the items that need to be checked before a private investment is signed and closed:
Founders and the Founding Team: We hear this often that a VC backs a ‘team’ and not a company. So when we talk about due diligence of an early stage investment, the team acquires the center-stage, in terms of investment decision making. There are a host of questions that need answering before backing a founding team. For example, whether one of the founders was sacked in the last job due to charges of sexual harassment against him? How founders behave with their teams when investors are not around? Are the educational and experience credentials claimed by founders correct and verifiable? Has someone spoken to the references provided? And so many more!!
When millions are riding on the personal conduct of a group of people, no investor would want to repeat a ‘Travis Kalanick’ episode. It is thus imperative to get into all the minute details about the founding team’s business and personal conduct.
Market and Industry of the Target Company: Another oft-repeated saying of the Alternative Investment industry is that ‘it is better to invest in an average company in a rising industry rather than backing an excellent company in a declining industry’. To be on the top of the industry trends and how it is going to unfold in near to mid-term is imperative for risk aversion of the invested capital. An industry with all its hues of multiple sub-industries with cross-germination of tech into it needs a specialist intervention in terms of market research and forecasts
Past Financial Performance: The target company usually provides data on revenue and market traction. Although dollars coming into a bank account is a fairly straight-forward end KPI, there are multiple other market traction KPIs which finally ensure dollars in the account at some point of time in the future. These traction KPIs are industry specific like the number of paid customers, freemium customers, free to paid customer conversion rates, claimed market share, etc. It would have been fairly simple if the company would have provided these numbers accurately. Sometimes clouds are deliberately maintained on data. One sees a month-on-month increasing number of customers, but what is not known is the percentage of paid customers amongst them or worst still, maybe the whole surge has come from free membership campaigns. Devil is in the details. Talking to market and tech experts along with customers will go a long way in ensuring the right investment decision.
Future Financial Performance: Future financial performance is usually a linear or exponential extrapolation of current performance or sometimes just pulled out of the hat to sell a rosy picture of the future. Many times, the company is struggling to meet expenses currently, but future forecasts graph takes off like a rocket headed into space. All these forecasts need to be taken with a pinch of salt. It’s worthwhile to check and challenge all the assumptions that have gone into coming up with the forecasts. It is a factor that could literally make or break for your millions going into the private investment.
Customers: Proof of the pudding is in the eating. Customers talking well of a company is a good sign for investors. Also, customers vote with their dollars. Talking to them gives an idea about the customer journey, pain points, existing alternatives to product or service and what exactly would be needed for them to shell out those dollars for the product or service. This requires a specialist Market Research agency that has expertise in ghost shopping and customer surveys.
Employees: One of the first people who bought into a vision is the ‘employees’ of the start-up. A place that has happy employees speaks louder than any other credential for the founder. At the same time, a toxic culture will be quicksand that will absorb millions of dollars in no time, without a blip on revenue numbers. Most founders are not ‘Steve Jobs’ type visionary. They are average folks, who get stressed with day to day running of the start-up machinery, which takes a toll on them. How do they behave with their employees at that point in time is a fairly good indicator of an individual’s potential as an effective stakeholder manager currently and in the future. A research agency can provide honest feedback on this indicator.
Regulations: Are there any regulatory risks in the business, that will come into play after scaling up of operations? Thorough research and liasioning with government agencies can go a long way in avoiding statutory and regulatory risks that might plague your investment in the future.
Other Investors: Old boys of the industry do remark that ‘VCs and PEs hunt in packs’. It is heard often. Other investors are more of a support than a threat. If they have voted with their dollars than it might be a good company. Also in situations of B2C tech where winners take it all or a small group of winners take it all, funding dollars make the difference between the winner and the laggards. Multiple investors backing a company will take care of those dollars, which means your own investment is safer. At this point, verifying the claim of the company about other lead investors, co-investors and conversations going on need to be verified by a neutral agency.
Magistral Consulting helps Private Equity, Venture Capital, Family Offices and Investment Banks in performing due diligence for private assets. All these steps are taken care of, in our proprietary research method that is designed to eliminate potential investment risks. A concise weight based evaluation metrics with clear recommendations about future potential and risks are delivered in aggressive timelines. As our delivery centers are based out of low-cost countries, it builds in significant savings in terms of research costs as well. To know more, please get in touch with firstname.lastname@example.org
The author is CEO of Magistral Consulting and can be reached at email@example.com for any clarifications and queries.